Token Financial Model

Where the numbers come from

The model connects directly to the two systems the business runs on and reads the latest figures each time it is opened. It only reads from these systems — it never changes anything in them.

Completed and current months use these actual figures; future months are projected (see below).

Schedule of Assumed Values

Every forward-looking number in this model is built from the assumptions below. They are listed here in one place so any figure encountered in the workbook can be traced back to what drives it. Values shown are the model’s current settings, rendered live.

How the model works

• Fiscal year. Token’s fiscal year runs October 1–September 30. Year 1 is the launch period: first sale Sep 15 2025 through Sep 30 2026 (13 months). Year 2 onward are full Oct–Sep years.
• Actuals vs. forecast. Finished months show actual results. The current month is shown as actual-to-date and fills in as the month progresses. Future months are forecast.
• Revenue. Direct-to-consumer (Shopify) plus wholesale (QuickBooks), carried forward by the model’s growth assumptions.
• Gross margin. Revenue less product cost (COGS); Token’s blended margin runs about 53%, weighted by product and channel mix.
• Inventory. Set to the actual QuickBooks balance for the current month, then projected forward based on the Cash Conversion Cycle setting — how many months of stock the business carries.
• Cash. A running bank balance that reflects equity investment and the timing of inventory purchases.
• Payroll. Base salaries grossed up by a 40% burden rate (set on the Assumptions page).
• What counts as a unit. Unit counts include finished guitar-pick products (identified by their model-number SKUs) and exclude items such as apparel, gift cards, and shipping.

What this is — and isn’t

This is a forward-looking pro forma — a planning and decision tool, not audited or GAAP financial statements.

• The current month is partial and updates through the month.
• Some figures are reasonable estimates or simplifications rather than exact accounting detail.
• Forecasts depend on assumptions that can change; actual results will differ, sometimes materially.

Provided for informational and planning purposes only. It is not legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice, and should not be relied upon as a guarantee of future performance.

Finding your way around

• Pro Forma — the headline view: Year-1 performance against live actuals, the 5-year forecast, P&L detail, and monthly cash position.
• Unit Economics — two views: Acquisition Economics (customer lifetime value, acquisition cost and efficiency, repeat behavior, and the forward ad-spend policy) and Product Economics (per-unit cost, price, and margin for every model, fed by live sales mix).
• Forecast Assumptions — the growth engine: every input that drives the forward months, adjustable with immediate effect everywhere.
• Humans — payroll plan and headcount timing.
• Equity — valuation (four methods plus an IP appraisal) and the pro forma cap table for the current round.
• Full Spreadsheet — the complete month-by-month model, every line, five years.
• About — this page, including the Schedule of Assumed Values above.

Glossary

Terms with a Token-specific meaning. Standard financial vocabulary is used in its ordinary sense throughout.

DTC

Direct-to-consumer — sales through Token’s own online store to individual players. Shopify is the system of record for this channel.

Wholesale / Dealer

For Token, a dealer is a brick-and-mortar music retailer stocking Token picks at wholesale prices — independent guitar shops and specialty stringed-instrument stores. QuickBooks invoices are the system of record for this channel.

Model numbers (e.g., A3-50)

Letter = pick shape, digit = material, number = thickness in thousandths of an inch. Only line items matching this pattern count as units sold; apparel, gift cards, and shipping are excluded from all unit counts.

Materials

The four pick materials: Amber, Tan, Green, and Black Amber. Green is the premium material and carries the highest price and cost; the assumed sales mix across materials drives every “blended” figure.

Blended

Any figure described as blended (price, margin, COGS) is weighted by the assumed product mix across the four materials and, where relevant, across the DTC and dealer channels.

Partial month

The current month appears as actuals-to-date blended with a projection for the remaining days, and firms up as the month progresses.

The model refreshes its live figures automatically each time it is opened.